CBS Says Trump Could Win With ‘Election Day Surge’

CBS News said Sunday that President Donald Trump could still win his re-election bid on Tuesday night if he gets the turnout that is expected on November 3.

The news network noted that while Joe Biden is posting a slight lead in key states, Trump’s supporters are more likely to turn out full force on Election Day. CBS likened this to a “Republican-surge scenario.”

“Joe Biden heads into Election Day preferred by voters who have already cast their ballots early. President Trump has a lead among those who plan to show up on November 3,” CBS said.

The network explained, “We estimate from our polling that Mr. Trump is doing, on average, over 30 percentage points better among likely Election-Day voters than early voters. We know the approximate size of the early vote so far, and we vary the potential size of the Election-Day vote to explore two scenarios. In our Republican-surge scenario, the size of the Election-Day vote is relatively large, so given that these voters break for Mr. Trump, it mitigates Biden’s early-vote edge, and Mr. Trump inches out close wins in enough states to go over 270. (We increased the size of the Election-Day vote by an average of seven points in this scenario, while keeping vote preference among early voters and Election-Day voters fixed.)”

The network also stressed that “it doesn’t take much” for Trump to lose the election, too.

“If some of the people planning to vote on Tuesday decided not to show up, and the size of the Election-Day vote decreases by an average of three points from our initial estimates, the net result is pretty dramatic. Given Biden’s overall preference leads, nearly all the competitive states either flip to Biden or stay in his column, giving him a comfortable win.”
The Daily Wire said a Trump win in 2016 was underestimated by Democrats. Trump is hoping for a repeat of the major upset this election.