An enormous earthquake may soon affect parts of the United States for the first time in over three centuries.
Recent research has investigated the likelihood of an earthquake exceeding 8.0 magnitude striking the Pacific Northwest in the near future, and the results are quite alarming.
The study, conducted by researchers from Virginia Tech, was published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences last month.
The research indicates that an earthquake could take place along the Cascadia subduction zone—a 600-mile convergent plate boundary stretching from northern California to southern British Columbia.
This region of the U.S. reportedly has a 15 percent chance of witnessing an earthquake surpassing 8.0 magnitude within the upcoming 50 years.
Such an earthquake would cause coastal land to subside by up to 6.5 feet, according to the study.
The Great Alaska Earthquake of 1964, which registered a magnitude of 9.2, is among the largest recorded earthquakes in the United States, as reported by the US Geological Survey.
Addressing the concerning discoveries, Tina Dura, the lead author of the study and an assistant professor of geosciences in the College of Science, stated: “The expansion of the coastal floodplain following a Cascadia subduction zone earthquake has not been previously quantified, and the impacts to land use could significantly increase the timeline to recovery.”
Southern Washington, northern Oregon, and northern California are predicted to be some of the most severely affected areas.
If such a catastrophic earthquake occurred today, Dura and her team estimated that ‘14,350 residents, 22,500 structures, and 777 miles of roadway would fall within the post-earthquake floodplain’.
The Cascadia subduction zone is a segment of the ‘Pacific Ring of Fire,’ an area known for producing many of the world’s most significant earthquakes and tsunamis.
By the year 2100, sea levels are projected to rise by an additional three feet, intensifying potential damage.
Dura further cautioned: “Today, and more so in 2100 as background sea levels rise, the immediate effect of earthquake-driven subsidence will be a delay in response and recovery from the earthquake due to compromised assets. Long-term effects could render many coastal communities uninhabitable.”
While the U.S. has experienced earthquakes above 8.0 magnitude in recent years, one occurring along the Cascadia subduction zone would be the first since January 1700.
The authors of the study emphasize the importance of preparing for such a catastrophic scenario.
“Preparing for these compound hazards can minimize long-term damage, ensure resilient communities, and protect critical coastal ecosystems from permanent degradation,” the authors wrote, according to The Guardian.