Questions have emerged about the athletic future of Ahmad Hardy, a possible first-round NFL draft prospect, after he was shot while attending a concert in Mississippi.
Hardy, a first-team All-SEC running back for the Missouri Tigers, has been widely viewed as an NFL-calibre talent, with early chatter pointing to the 2027 draft as his likely route to the league.
That outlook has been thrown into doubt following reports that he was shot at a concert in the state.
He’s said to be in stable condition, but any schedule for his return to the field has been described as “unknown.”
In a statement on social media, Missouri’s football program said: “Ahmad is deeply loved by his teammates, coaches, friends, family and fans.
“We will continue to stand beside him and his family through this difficult time, offering our love, prayers, strength and support. A timeline for his return to football activities is unknown at this time.”
Pro Football Focus currently lists the Oma native as its top running back in the 2027 class, projecting him as the No. 26 overall pick. Another mock draft has placed him as high as No. 16, reflecting how quickly his stock has risen.
“There is no true standout running back in this class yet,” PFF says.
“Hardy led the SEC in rushing yards last season, and his 25 carries of 15-plus yards led college football. While his contact balance is as good as you’ll see, he remains largely unproven as a receiver (22 yards last year), which will limit his ceiling unless addressed.”
To illustrate what may be at stake financially for a first-round running back, an analysis of the past decade of first-round selections shows how lucrative rookie contracts can be at the position.
At the top end is LA Raiders running back Ashton Jeanty, who reportedly agreed a $35.9 million deal after being taken sixth overall.
Saquon Barkley’s 2018 selection also stands out, with the former New York Giants No. 2 pick landing $31.19 million.
Other notable examples include Ezekiel Elliott, who earned $24.9 million as a 2016 first-rounder with the Dallas Cowboys, and Leonard Fournette, whose rookie deal with the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2017 was valued at $27.15 million.
Based on 2025 rookie-scale figures as a reference point, a player drafted at No. 26—the slot PFF currently projects—could be in line for a contract worth about $16.78 million. If selected closer to No. 16, that estimate rises to roughly $19.37 million.
However, if the incident and any recovery time were to disrupt his trajectory, the potential financial impact could be substantial.
Even sliding from the middle of the first round into the early second round could mean a drop of around $7.6 million by those estimates. For now, attention remains on Hardy’s health and recovery.