The United States is on track to record one of the lowest homicide rates in over a century, according to a new report released Thursday by the Council on Criminal Justice, a nonpartisan think tank focused on criminal justice policy and research.
Data collected from 30 major American cities showed an 18% decrease in the homicide rate during the first half of 2026 compared to the same period in 2025, translating to approximately 215 fewer homicides this year. If the trend continues through the remainder of 2026, the annual homicide rate would reach its lowest levels in more than 100 years, with final numbers expected when the FBI releases its full data later this year.
The report tracked 13 categories of crime and found declines in nine of them, including carjackings, residential burglaries, and aggravated assaults. The results are particularly notable because they represent the continuation of a dramatic downward trajectory that began after the historic crime surge during the COVID-19 pandemic.
In major cities across the country, the improvements have been striking. New York City’s homicides through April were at their lowest point in monthly data extending back to 1960. Philadelphia, Baltimore, New Orleans, and Chicago have also posted historically low numbers in 2026. The data has prompted some experts to describe this period as potentially America’s second “Great Crime Decline,” comparing it to the significant crime drops of the 1990s.
Notably, a significant share of violent crimes became less lethal this year. There was a 23% drop in the lethality of crimes committed, measured by the share of serious violent crimes that proved fatal. Additionally, many property crimes tracked in the report saw declines, including a 13% drop in residential burglaries year over year and a 50% drop in burglaries compared to pre-pandemic levels in 2019.
Not all crimes experienced the same positive trajectory. The report documented a 5% increase in shoplifting, while domestic violence incidents, sexual assaults, and drug offenses all ticked slightly upward compared to the same period in 2025, though drug offenses remained lower than pre-pandemic levels.
The nationwide improvements mask some geographic variation. Roughly a third of the 30 sampled cities saw increases in deadly violence from the first half of 2025 to the same period in 2026. Norfolk, Virginia experienced a 64% increase in homicides, while San Francisco saw a 55% increase. However, when looking at longer-term trends, only four cities—Norfolk, Austin, Pittsburgh, and Minneapolis—recorded more homicides in 2026 than in the same period in 2019.
Experts have offered competing interpretations of what is driving the decline, though most agree there is no single cause. Adam Gelb, president and CEO of the Council on Criminal Justice, characterized the developments as historic. “This is one of the most significant public safety developments in decades,” Gelb said, adding that “it means lives are being saved, families are spared trauma and communities are regaining stability.”
The positive trends appear across cities with different political leadership and different public safety strategies, suggesting that factors contributing to the improvements are nationwide rather than tied to specific local approaches. This breadth of improvement across diverse jurisdictions has made simple political explanations difficult to sustain.
John Roman, director of the Center on Public Safety and Justice at the National Opinion Research Center from the University of Chicago, noted that many factors could impact crime rates in different ways depending on location. However, the broad-based nature of the decline suggests widespread forces at work.
Experts cite multiple possible explanations for the dramatic improvements, though they emphasize the complexity of identifying definitive causes. Suggested factors include changes in criminal justice policies and programs, advances in crime-fighting technologies, shifts in social and economic conditions, and investments in community violence reduction strategies. Some researchers point to broader social changes such as people spending more time at home, using drugs and alcohol less, and carrying less cash, which could impact certain crime categories.
The decline comes after an extraordinarily challenging period. Homicides surged to historic levels following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, creating urgent public safety concerns across the nation. The recovery since then has been remarkably consistent and accelerating.
Despite the optimistic data, some researchers caution against certainty about future trends. Patrick Sharkey, a professor of sociology and public affairs at Princeton University, noted that violence remains complex and difficult to forecast because it is an emergent phenomenon that can build on itself.
The report’s findings represent a turning point in American public safety that experts say deserves serious study. As Gelb emphasized, while there is no single explanation for the dramatic improvements, understanding what drove this decline will be crucial for maintaining and extending the progress.