Democrats think Rep. Max Miller’s troubles could help them flip an Ohio House seat

Facing a narrow path to winning control of the U.S. House, Democrats are seeing fresh opportunity in a northeast Ohio congressional seat where the Republican incumbent is facing mounting pressure over domestic abuse allegations in a bitter and drawn-out dispute with his ex-wife.

Democrats see an chance to flip a US House seat as abuse claims mount against Ohio Rep. Max Miller

Allegations against U.S. Rep. Max Miller, a White House adviser during President Donald Trump’s first term, have been public for years but have recently drawn increased media scrutiny amid an escalating legal back-and-forth with his former spouse, Emily Moreno, who is the daughter of U.S. Sen. Bernie Moreno of Ohio. The congressman won his district two years ago with just over 51 percent of the vote, and Democrats now believe he could be vulnerable as the allegations intensify.

Miller’s ex-wife has accused him of multiple serious incidents of physical violence. According to accounts detailed in court documents and police reports, Moreno claims Miller burned her chest and stomach by throwing hot water at her, held a gun to her head, and fractured their 2-year-old daughter’s collarbone. A child protection specialist found bruising on the daughter resembling a handprint, and according to an investigative report, the child told investigators that Daddy’s house is scary.

Miller has vehemently denied all allegations. He was never charged with a crime, and the Department of Children and Family Services did not find evidence to substantiate allegations of child abuse. The couple married in 2022 at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate in a ceremony that included a toast by President Trump, and divorced last year.

Beyond the allegations from his ex-wife, Miller is also facing a defamation lawsuit from Stephanie Grisham, former White House press secretary. Grisham, who dated Miller in 2019 and 2020, wrote in a 2021 Washington Post op-ed that she had experienced abuse from a fellow White House staffer whose relationship with her had turned abusive and who had anger issues and a violent streak. She later identified that person as Miller. Miller sued her for defamation, but they reached a confidential settlement with a nondisclosure agreement. Grisham is now suing him for allegedly breaking that agreement by discussing the case in his denials of the allegations from Moreno.

The congressional controversy has drawn rare bipartisan concern. Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine expressed being troubled by the allegations, though he said it should be up to voters whether Miller remains in Congress. Democratic members of Congress have called for Miller’s resignation and a House ethics investigation. The Democratic Women’s Caucus and Giffords, a gun violence prevention advocacy group, have both called for Miller to resign.

Republican leaders, however, have largely remained silent or defended Miller. Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio said Miller is a good man and expressed hope he would win reelection. Speaker Mike Johnson noted that the allegations should go through the normal ethics process. Republicans have continued to stand by Miller, saying he has delivered for his district and remains electable in November.

Yet the allegations have complicated what was previously viewed as a safe Republican seat. Ohio’s 7th District, which includes Cleveland’s western suburbs and surrounding counties, voted for Trump by 11 points in 2024. But Miller’s narrow 51 percent victory two years ago has sparked interest from national Democrats.

The Cook Political Report, the most widely watched race handicapping organization, moved Miller’s seat from “Solid Republican” to “Likely Republican” status earlier this summer. Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted the race even further, moving it to “Leans Republican” in the wake of recent reporting on the allegations. These downgrades signal that respected election analysts now consider the race more competitive than previously believed.

Democrats see an chance to flip a US House seat as abuse claims mount against Ohio Rep. Max Miller

A June poll commissioned by Democratic-aligned interests found Miller leading his Democratic opponent, union ironworker Brian Poindexter, by just one point, 44 percent to 43 percent, well within the survey’s margin of error. The same poll showed Trump with underwater approval ratings in the district, with respondents giving him only 44 percent approval and 54 percent disapproval. Poindexter held a significant 17-point advantage among independent voters.

Poindexter, a union official and former council member in Brook Park, secured the Democratic nomination in May with 37 percent of the vote in a crowded primary. Democrats hope his blue-collar background and deep roots in the working-class community will resonate in a district Trump won decisively but where moderate and independent voters may be persuadable.

Over the past week, Democratic operatives have called for Miller to resign, requested an ethics investigation, and suggested directing additional campaign resources toward Poindexter in the fall. The House Majority PAC, a super political action committee aimed at electing a Democratic majority, said it is monitoring the race’s dynamics as part of its strategy to push deeper into Republican territory in the 2026 midterm elections. “HMP is willing to do whatever it takes to take back the House, and nothing is off the table,” spokesman CJ Warnke said.

Miller has filed defamation lawsuits against his ex-wife and the second accuser, arguing that he is the victim of a coordinated campaign meant to ruin his reputation and harm his reelection chances. He has characterized the allegations as politically motivated and tied to custody disputes. His team notes that joint custody of his child has been maintained despite the accusations, arguing this demonstrates a lack of credible evidence supporting the claims.

The difficulties Miller faces have reached the attention of President Trump’s inner circle as they work to retain GOP control of Capitol Hill, according to reporting on the matter. Whether the emerging competitiveness of this once-safe Republican district signals a broader vulnerability for the GOP heading into the midterms remains to be seen, but Democrats see the race as one of their better opportunities to gain ground in traditionally Republican territory.

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