A new California poll released Tuesday shows Gov. Gavin Newsom heading toward a possible presidential bid with underwater approval ratings in his own state.
The NBCUniversal Local and Telemundo Station Group survey of 625 registered California voters, conducted Sept. 21 to 24, found Newsom, 57, at 45% approval and 46% disapproval for his job performance. The narrow split masks sharp geographic and demographic divides that strategists say could shadow a national campaign.
Rural Northern California — excluding Sacramento and the Bay Area — delivered the harshest verdict: just 28% approval against 60% disapproval. Political consultant Matt Rexroad told The Post that this regional collapse points to a broader electability problem.
“This does not impact his Presidential campaign directly, but it does indicate that he does not know how to communicate with rural voters,” Rexroad said.
“The people of Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina will not be impressed with a politician from California who wants to talk about being from 1) California 2) San Francisco and 3) now lives in Marin County,” he added.
Rexroad cited a Republican Governors Association ad tying a Kansas Democratic gubernatorial candidate to California as evidence of the Golden State’s toxic brand beyond its borders.
The partisan split in the poll was predictably severe: 93% of Republicans rated Newsom’s performance bad, while 74% of Democrats approved. The danger for Newsom, said Morris Levy, an associate political science professor at the University of Southern California, sits in the remaining Democratic quarter.
“In short, Democrats mostly support Newsom, and Republicans are overwhelmingly opposed,” Levy said.
“Some Democrats are also lukewarm on Newsom, or dissatisfied with his performance, and this could become an issue if he seeks the nomination.”
Gender and race produced their own fractures. A majority of men disapproved of Newsom, while a majority of women approved. White Californians were mostly negative, but Hispanic and Asian voters held net positive views.
The poll’s hypothetical presidential question offered brighter news for the governor: 66% of California Democrats said they would be inclined to vote for Newsom as the party’s nominee, against 15% who would not. Levy cautioned that the question lacked head-to-head matchups against other candidates.
Newsom’s age-group numbers stayed relatively flat, yet Levy warned that surface stability may hide deeper ideological threats.
“Newsom has sought to position himself as a mainstream Democrat — tussling with Trump but also tacking toward the center on issues such as transgender athletes’ participation in female sports,” Levy said. “That probably masks the opposition Newsom or Harris would face from the surging younger portion of their base that has shifted far to the left on economic issues, Israel, and more.”
The governor has spent recent months road-testing his national appeal with trips to early primary states including Michigan and South Carolina. He has also adjusted policy positions in ways analysts read as primary positioning, most notably endorsing a national billionaire tax this year after long opposing a similar state-level measure in California.
Newsom’s office did not respond to The Post’s request for comment on the poll findings.
