Marie Bailey, 44, is leaving Texas for Florida after Democrats swept the state in a stunning midterm blue wave.
The El Segundo, California, native built her reputation guiding fellow Californians through relocations to the Lone Star State, commanding a large Facebook group dedicated to the move. Now the realtor is reversing her own course, telling The California Post she was “shocked” by election results that saw Gov. Greg Abbott lose and Democrats James Talarico and Gina Hinojosa win the Senate and gubernatorial races.
“There’s a lot of people who I believe are going to change course to Florida,” Bailey said. “Florida is actually where I am going.”
Her defection carries weight after years spent as a prominent voice in the California-to-Texas migration pipeline. Bailey estimated that 99 percent of her clientele came from California, with cost of living ranking as the top draw and politics running a close second.
“I just don’t trust the motives, and I understand all politicians have some corruption in them, but when I pay for it — like that bullet train and high gas prices and all of that in California — it directly hits my wallet,” she said.
The blue wave has sent tremors through online communities where conservative transplants gathered to celebrate their escapes from Democratic governance. Members of Bailey’s own group vented frustration as the results sank in.
“If I have to tolerate blue I might as well have good weather so maybe back to CA? Or give FL a try?” one member posted.
“I am literally closing on a house in Texas next week! I am so pissed,” another wrote about the elections.
Breana Janel, a baseball mom and fellow California transplant, found herself similarly shaken. The former Riverside County resident, who once backed Republican Sheriff Chad Bianco in California’s gubernatorial race, said she “knew” Democrats “were coming for Texas,” but thought she had more time.
“I don’t know that I can justify moving from one blue state to another…And I fear that Texas will never flip back,” she wrote. “Now that they have control, I don’t think they’ll let go.”
“That’s a lateral move. And for what? For it to look even more like California in four years?”
Janel told The California Post she is now weighing moves to Tennessee, the Carolinas, or Georgia, though Democrats notched key victories in all three states plus North Carolina and South Carolina as the party flipped both the Senate and House in Washington.
The political narrative of liberal Californians invading and transforming Texas clashes with demographic research. Joshua Blank, research director of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin, told the LA Times that most people moving to Texas from California “tend to be moderate to conservative in their views.”
Blank dismissed the impulse to flee again as irrational. “They don’t have to move back,” he said. “And if they do, I’m gonna tell them they’re silly. It’s not a good way to make decisions.”
Affordability remains the engine driving cross-country moves regardless of political winds. A 2025 RAND analysis found building multifamily housing costs more than 2.3 times as much in California as in Texas. Bailey’s website features success stories including one couple who traded a two-bedroom, one-bathroom Orange County house for a five-bedroom, four-bathroom Texas home.
“Our enthusiasm for Texas is real, our abundance is overflowing, and we are grateful, y’all,” the couple wrote.
The Gomez family, another Bailey-cited example, said pandemic business devastation left them “within an inch of total financial ruin” before a single Texas visit convinced them to relocate.
“If you’re on the fence, this is your sign. Take the leap. The weight has lifted and we’re beyond blessed to be in Texas,” they wrote at the time.
Interest in Texas has now dimmed “quite a bit” among Bailey’s contacts, with Florida emerging as the favored alternative for those still determined to outrun Democratic governance.