The news surrounding the long-lost Kosmos 482 spacecraft is generating significant interest across various platforms, from space forums to social media. This spacecraft, which has been orbiting Earth for over half a century, is expected to make its descent back to the planet’s surface this week.
Kosmos 482 was launched in the early 1970s by Soviet space explorers, and it is anticipated to reenter Earth’s atmosphere by the week’s end.
Despite being a failed Soviet mission intended for Venus, experts suggest that the impact of Kosmos 482 is unlikely to cause significant harm.
However, astrophysics expert Jonathan McDowell has not completely dismissed the potential for danger.
As the event draws near, we have gathered essential information, including the purpose behind Kosmos 482’s launch, the areas at risk of being impacted by the descending debris, and how to track its reentry into the atmosphere.
On March 31, 1972, Kosmos 482 was launched via a Molniya booster from the Baikonur Cosmodrome, a spaceport operated by Russia in Kazakhstan.
According to NASA, the mission was an “attempted Venus probe which failed to escape low Earth orbit.” This conclusion is based on both Soviet and non-Soviet sources alongside historical documentation.
The mission intended for the spacecraft to enter a trajectory towards Venus and land on its surface, continuing the uncrewed Soviet Venera missions to the planet.
However, a suspected engine burn resulted in the separation of the spacecraft into four pieces, with two remaining in low Earth orbit and decaying within 48 hours.
The lander probe that detached has remained in orbit since 1972 and has been slowly decaying over time.
This component is expected to reenter Earth’s atmosphere by the week’s conclusion.
After more than 50 years in space, Kosmos 482 is slated to reenter the atmosphere around May 10 at 7:30 UT (03:30 ET), as noted by NASA.
The European Space Agency (ESA) has provided an updated prediction, narrowing the reentry time to 07:12 UTC (03:12 ET).
NASA indicates that the reentry time will become clearer as the event approaches.
Marco Langbroek, a scientist and satellite tracker, stated, “The uncertainty in the reentry date will decrease once we get closer to the actual reentry, but even on the day, uncertainties will remain large.”
The spacecraft, which weighs approximately 1,050 pounds, is equipped with a protective heat shield, suggesting it might partially survive its descent to Earth. The responsibility for managing the debris once it lands remains uncertain.
The ESA is actively providing updates on the spacecraft’s status and trajectory.
As the 53-year-old capsule returns to Earth, the ESA’s website is offering consistent updates through its blog and live prediction diagrams for those who prefer a visual representation.
For those interested in following the reentry, the ESA Kosmos 482 reentry tracker and live updates are available here.
Just as the timing of the spacecraft’s fall is uncertain, so too is its landing location.
Experts predict that Kosmos 482 could land anywhere between 52 degrees north and south of the equator.
The 52nd parallel north traverses regions including the UK, Netherlands, Germany, Poland, and parts of Russia, as well as areas in Asia, the Pacific Ocean, North America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Conversely, the 52nd parallel south passes through Chile, Argentina, and extends across the Atlantic Ocean and the Falkland Islands.
Professionals will refine the predicted landing location as the event nears.
The prospect of any object entering Earth’s atmosphere can be daunting, and Kosmos 482 is no exception.
Jonathan McDowell, from the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, has remarked that upon impact, the spacecraft might pose a risk to human life and infrastructure.
“It is alarming but not end-of-the-world alarming,” he stated. “It’s like a medium-sized car falling out of the sky.”
However, he also noted that it is more probable for Kosmos 482 to land in water or on uninhabited land, reducing the likelihood of severe consequences.
Stijn Lemmens from the European Space Agency reassured the public, suggesting that being struck by this space debris is less likely than winning the lottery.
Similarly, Marco Langbroek emphasized that the risk of a person being hit is less than being struck by lightning in one’s lifetime.
According to The Aerospace Corporation, the odds of Kosmos 482 causing significant damage are approximately 1 in 25,000.