Donald Trump has said this year’s filing period will be the “largest tax refund season of all time” — but what do the latest figures suggest Americans may actually receive?
On January 26, the White House announced that the typical US taxpayer could see their refund rise by about $1,000, and potentially more.
That statement pointed to analysis based on data provided by investment bank Piper Sandler, drawing on figures from October 2025.
Since then, several proposals have also been introduced that would issue tax refunds to those most affected by Trump’s tariff agenda, which has already rippled through the economy as companies pass added costs to shoppers.
Still, while the early White House messaging suggested a major jump, more recent reporting offers a clearer sense of how refunds are trending as the season progresses.
According to an IRS report dated March 20, 2026, the average refund in the US sits at about $3,571.
That’s higher than last year’s level — but it doesn’t match the scale of increase implied by the $1,000 figure mentioned in January.
Instead, the IRS data shows the average refund is up roughly $350 compared with the prior amount of $3,221, based on figures released in March.
The average refund amount also peaked earlier in the season, reaching $3,804 on February 20, up from $3,453.
Corey Husak, director of tax policy at the Center for American Progress (CAP) — which calls itself an “independent nonpartisan policy institute” — argued the results fall short of expectations.
Husak said: “Americans were promised meaningful relief, but the numbers tell a very different story.
“Refund increases are modest, uneven, and heavily tilted toward the highest earners, while other Trump policies are driving costs higher for working families.”
In comments to CNBC, White House spokesperson Kush Desai cautioned that it is “premature to make any pronouncements about the average”.
Desai added: “What the data does show, however, is that millions of working class Americans who were meant to get tax relief – through no tax on overtime, tips, or Social Security – are taking advantage of President Trump’s historic tax cut legislation.”
So what might refunds look like across different income groups?
CAP’s analysis suggests households earning under $100,000 could see an average increase of around $210 — and that only 48.8 percent are projected to receive a larger refund, meaning fewer than half would come out ahead.
By contrast, the same analysis estimates households with incomes of $200,000 or more may see substantially bigger gains, averaging roughly $2,000.
All of this is unfolding as many Americans continue to face higher day-to-day expenses, with rising costs for essentials such as groceries, medicine and healthcare, and housing.