Tomorrow (January 27), we’ll learn how close we are to the ‘end of civilization’ with the latest update of the Doomsday Clock.
Since its inception in 1947, this metaphorical clock has been a poignant reminder of how near we might be to a global catastrophe initiated by human actions.
The Doomsday Clock was conceptualized by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, a nonprofit organization formed after World War II by scientists involved in the Manhattan Project, the group that developed the earliest atomic bombs.
The aim was to provide a comprehensible, visual representation to communicate the urgent risks facing the world to both policymakers and the general public.
Every January, the Bulletin’s Science and Security Board, which includes experts in fields like nuclear risk, climate science, biology, and technology, meets to decide whether to adjust the clock’s position relative to midnight.
The proximity of the clock’s hands to midnight serves as an indicator of how close the world is believed to be to a major disaster.
Reaching midnight symbolizes a global disaster such as nuclear conflict, unchecked climate change, or other massive threats.
Last year, the Doomsday Clock was set at 89 seconds to midnight, moving forward from 90 seconds, marking the closest it has ever been.
This change was attributed to growing threats from nuclear weapons, climate change, advancements in artificial intelligence, bio-threats, and ongoing conflicts in regions like Ukraine and the Middle East.
But what might be in store for this year?
It seems the expectation among experts is for the Doomsday Clock to advance again tomorrow, a rather gloomy prediction.
Alicia Sanders-Zakre, the head of policy at the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons, mentioned to the Daily Mail that the clock might move ‘by at least one second’.
“Our biggest concern is the existential threat posed by the more than 12,000 nuclear weapons in the world today,” she stated, adding that the risk has increased over the past year due to “skyrocketing investments in nuclear arms, increasingly threatening nuclear rhetoric and actions, and the increasing application of artificial intelligence in militaries.”
In the meantime, Hamza Chaudhry, AI and national security lead at the Future of Life Institute, told the publication he anticipates the clock might jump forward by five to ten seconds.
This anticipation is partly because the New START Treaty, which limits the size of countries’ strategic nuclear weapons stockpiles, is expiring soon, with no successor agreement currently in place.
“For the first time since the early Cold War, there will be no bilateral arms control treaty limiting US-Russian strategic arsenals,” Chaudhry explained.
“While President Trump has expressed interest in talks, as of today, there’s been no concrete progress. This represents a fundamental breakdown in the nuclear arms control architecture.”
Additional issues include less cooperation around Ukraine and China’s rapid expansion of its nuclear capabilities.
“China is on a trajectory to match US and Russian ICBM numbers by the end of the decade,” he noted. “China’s arsenal growth creates pressure on US planning, which creates pressure on Russian planning, in cascading spirals, and there’s no trilateral arms control framework.”
The Doomsday Clock, housed in the Keller Center in Chicago, is set to be updated on Tuesday (January 27) at 10am EST (3pm GMT).
The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists will reveal the new time during a live-streamed press conference on their YouTube channel here.