Experts are warning the next “super El Niño” could arrive as soon as mid-to-late 2026 — and there are four key ways it may affect daily life.
El Niño episodes tend to occur every two to seven years and often last around 12 to 18 months.
The pattern develops when surface waters across the central and eastern Pacific become unusually warm. That shift can influence weather across large regions, raising the odds of hotter, record-challenging summers in some places and colder, windier winter conditions in others.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says there is an 80 percent chance of El Nino developing by July 2026.
Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) has also projected that 2026 “will likely be among the hottest years on record”.
Global News chief meteorologist Anthony Farnell said: “Our planet has never been this warm and that, it’s partly because of climate change but also the super El Niño.
He stressed that an intense El Niño could have knock-on effects in several specific areas.
1) Food supply and prices
Farnell cautioned that Canada could feel the strain through disruptions to food production and supply chains linked to weather extremes abroad.
He said: “We get a lot of our food from different parts of the world, whether it be coffee beans or chocolate or oranges or really anything. It comes from areas that are more susceptible.
“This can affect commodity process and potentially lead to food insecurity in severely impacted regions.”
2) Flooding and heavy precipitation
Kent Moore, a physics professor at the University of Toronto, highlighted how stronger storms and heavier rainfall can create flash flooding risks in certain areas.
He also warned: “If you have a bad or a really heavy rainfall event, you could see localized flooding happening.
“Certainly, in coastal regions of California, there’s probably lots of flooding, and then in the high mountains there could be lots of snow.”
He added that heavier snow in mountainous regions could increase the risk of “avalanches”, while noting that exact outcomes can vary and are difficult to pin down.
3) Wildfire smoke and health impacts
Farnell said that if conditions swing the other way and areas become much drier, wildfire seasons could intensify — and smoke exposure can bring serious health consequences.
“[It’s associated with] an increased risk of premature mortality and adverse respiratory effects, including exacerbation of asthma and [chronic obstructive pulmonary disease] COPD.”
4) Marine heat stress and coral reef damage
Farnell also pointed to concerns in the oceans, where warmer waters can add to existing climate-driven stress on ecosystems.
Already damaged due to climate change, he said researchers have seen a “big increase” in the link between El Niño conditions and worsening coral reef health.
He claimed: “The big rise in temperature, in some cases five or six degrees Celsius rise in the temperature in a short period of time, is too much for marine life to adapt to.”