The number of deaths is surpassing births, causing significant concern for many countries.
To counter the declining birth rates, some nations have introduced financial incentives to encourage their citizens to have more children. But why is this necessary?
In recent years, the population growth rate has been slowing down considerably.
Fertility rates, defined as ‘the average number of children per woman,’ have been dropping globally. A rate above 2.1 results in population growth, while anything below leads to a decrease.
Our World in Data reveals that the global fertility rate for 2024 is 2.25.
It states: “This has happened at different rates worldwide, as you can see in the chart. Fertility rates in Europe, the Americas, and Asia are now below or close to two children per woman. Across Africa, this figure is higher but has also fallen significantly. In the 1970s, it was almost seven children per woman. Today, it’s almost four. And the UN expects rates to keep dropping to less than three in 2050 and approaching two by the end of the century.”
In Northern America, fertility rates were 3.76 in 1958, but by 2024, they have fallen to 1.59. Asia’s rate has dropped to 1.88, Latin America and the Caribbean to 1.80, and Europe to 1.40.
The Spectator even challenges the UN World Population Prospects figure of 2.25, suggesting it is lower than the 2.1 replacement fertility level.
So, what does this imply?
IHME Health Data indicates that ‘dramatic declines in global fertility rates [are] set to transform population patterns by 2100’.
“By 2050, over three-quarters (155 of 204) of countries will not have high enough fertility rates to sustain population size over time; this will increase to 97 percent of countries (198 of 204) by 2100,” it cites from The Lancet.
Essentially, for the first time in around 60,000 years, the birth rate is not sufficient to replace the number of people dying.
However, even with declining fertility rates, this does not mean that the global population will decrease to the point where humans could become extinct.
The Lancet points out that despite over 97 percent of countries and territories having rates below the necessary levels to sustain population size over time, ‘comparatively high fertility rates in numerous low-income countries, predominantly in Western and Eastern sub-Saharan Africa, will continue to drive population increases in these locations throughout the century’.
A UN Nation report from 2022 states: “The current world population of 7.6 billion is expected to reach 8.6 billion in 2030, 9.8 billion in 2050 and 11.2 billion in 2100.
“[…] With roughly 83 million people being added to the world’s population every year, the upward trend in population size is expected to continue, even assuming that fertility levels will continue to decline.”
However, this shift will ‘completely reconfigure the global economy and the international balance of power and will necessitate reorganising societies’.
Lead Research Scientist from IHME, Dr. Natalia V. Bhattacharjee, concluded: “The implications are immense. These future trends in fertility rates and livebirths will completely reconfigure the global economy and the international balance of power and will necessitate reorganising societies.
“Global recognition of the challenges around migration and global aid networks are going to be all the more critical when there is fierce competition for migrants to sustain economic growth and as sub-Saharan Africa’s baby boom continues apace.”