A leading political analyst has warned that the exclusion of women from a potential U.S. Military draft could be overturned if battlefield demands intensify.
Christopher Lee, of Foresight Strategic Advisors, told the Daily Express US that roughly 168 million American women currently remain exempt from mandatory conscription under the Selective Service System. That figure represents the vast majority of the more than 160 million Americans who would be shielded from a WW3 call-up under existing statutes.
“Women have always been exempted from the Selective Service,” Lee said. “I do want to include a caveat on including women in the draft which is important to mention. There has been, over the last two decades, a significant movement behind including women in the draft.”
The push to expand draft eligibility has gathered momentum since women became eligible to serve in frontline U.S. Combat units. Lee pointed to the National Commission on Military, National, and Public Service, which was originally established during the Obama administration and dissolved in 2020 after formally recommending that the federal government both retain the draft and add women to the eligible pool.
“While the Commission dissolved in 2020, its recommendations could change the status of women in a draft,” Lee noted. “I believe the 2026 DoD budget version from the House—in changes made to Selective Service process—included women, but the final version was left out of that bill.”
Earlier this year, lawmakers floated fresh proposals to amend the Selective Service Act to require women to register, though the measure failed to advance. The statute still explicitly applies only to “male persons,” as The Hill has observed.
Lee cautioned that an acute military manpower shortage could force Washington to revisit the rules and examine international models. “Women are still not included in the draft—but that could certainly be altered as the needs of the military warrant,” he explained. “It should be noted that nations like Israel, as one example, require women to do a two-year service stint in the IDF. In addition, their service in front line combat units is selective at best and the Netanyahu government recently suspended women from serving as combat pilots.”
The renewed focus on conscription mechanics arrives as regional flashpoints stoke public anxiety about wider conflict. On Tuesday, November 10, Iran threatened strikes against U.S. Islands while Iranian-backed Houthi forces claimed an attack on a Saudi base in the Al-Buraiqa region. President Donald Trump has warned of potential further military action in the coming weeks.
Geopolitical risk models currently place the likelihood of outright World War 3 breaking out anytime soon at less than 10 percent, with nuclear deterrence and global economic ties tempering the odds. Yet escalating volatility in the Middle East surrounding the Midterm Elections has driven both lawmakers and citizens to examine worst-case mobilization scenarios.
Should Washington ever activate the Selective Service System, the mechanism would mark a dramatic shift from the all-volunteer force that has defined American military operations since 1973. The Vietnam War era relied on a birthday lottery system that subjected young men to randomized conscription based on date of birth, a process that fueled domestic unrest and ultimately helped drive the transition to the current volunteer model.
The current registration requirement applies to virtually all male U.S. Citizens and immigrants aged 18 through 25, who must sign up within 30 days of turning 18. Failure to register carries penalties including ineligibility for federal student aid, federal jobs, and naturalization for immigrants. Women have never been required to participate, though legal challenges and legislative proposals have periodically sought to overturn that exemption.
Lee’s analysis suggests that the 168-million-person exemption for women represents the single largest demographic barrier to universal conscription, even as operational realities and political calculations continue to stall formal expansion of the Selective Service rolls.
The House Armed Services Committee is expected to revisit draft-related provisions during upcoming markup sessions for the 2027 defense authorization bill.