A book published in 1997 made a stark forecast about the United States, warning that the country could be approaching its most serious ‘crisis’ yet — one with consequences it may not fully escape.
In The Fourth Turning, William Strauss and Neil Howe set out a theory that American history moves in repeating cycles lasting roughly 80 years. Each cycle, they argued, ends with a period of upheaval they called a ‘crisis’.
Based on that framework, the authors suggested the next major breaking point was not far off.
They said a crisis beginning in the mid-2000s would intensify until a peak around 2020, before reaching some kind of conclusion in 2026.
In the years since, that idea has attracted fresh attention because the United States has gone through a succession of destabilizing shocks, including the 2008 financial crisis, the Covid-19 pandemic, record political polarization, inflation, wars abroad, and growing distrust in institutions.
Strauss and Howe’s broader theory has also remained in circulation well beyond the original book. Howe later returned to the subject in a 2023 sequel, The Fourth Turning Is Here, arguing that the country is still inside a larger crisis period and that the next decade will be decisive.
Still, the book’s outlook for what follows is far from comforting.
Strauss and Howe argued that the final outcome of this period could leave a permanent mark on the nation and even put its long-term stability at risk.
“If the crisis catalyst comes on schedule, around the year 2005, then the climax will be due around 2020, the resolution around 2026.
“What will America be like as it exits the Fourth Turning? History offers no guarantees.”
The warning went even further, suggesting the damage caused by the current era could be profound.
“It could mean a lasting defeat from which our national innocence – and perhaps even our nation – might never recover.”
While The Fourth Turning did not identify specific events such as 9/11, the 2008 financial crash, or the Covid-19 pandemic, supporters say it anticipated the wider trajectory of the country.
Not everyone is convinced. Critics argue that the book’s claims are broad enough that major developments can easily be matched to the theory in hindsight, making it more useful as a lens for interpreting history than as a precise predictive model.
Even so, the authors pointed to repeated historical examples of societies being destabilised by a combination of war, disease, economic collapse, and political turmoil.
They said Americans should not assume the nation is somehow protected from the same fate.
“As many Americans know from their own ancestral backgrounds, history provides numerous examples of societies that have been wiped off the map, ground into submission, or beaten so badly they revert to barbarism,” they wrote in the book.
Under Strauss and Howe’s model, the US is now approaching the end of a historical cycle they believe began in the aftermath of World War II.