Hurricane Polo briefly exploded into a Category 5 storm Tuesday before weakening to Category 4 strength Wednesday morning, packing maximum sustained winds of 150 mph as forecasters scrambled to pin down where the unpredictable system will go next.
The powerhouse Pacific hurricane was located roughly 165 miles south of Zihuatanejo, Mexico, Wednesday morning and moving slowly north. Most computer models currently support a scenario where Polo remains offshore and eventually curves northwest and west-northwest, steering its core away from the US.
But several outliers paint dramatically different pictures. So-called “spaghetti models” show a handful of potential tracks carrying Polo or its remnants toward the Golden State, Arizona, New Mexico and Texas over the next seven to 10 days.
“This is one of the strongest storms ever in the (Pacific) Basin,” Kristen L. Corbosiero, a professor of atmospheric and environmental sciences at the University at Albany, told the AP.
Arizona appears to have the clearest potential path for Polo’s remnants if the system does turn toward the US, while some projections push tropical moisture into New Mexico and eventually western Texas. The National Hurricane Center expects Polo to remain offshore, though the uncertainty has kept forecasters watching closely.
“While a few models have this storm turning into the Gulf of California, and possibly into the Southwestern part of the US, most weather maps push this storm northwest away from land,” meteorologist Ross Ellet of 13ABC wrote on Facebook. “This will need to be watched in the days ahead.”
For California, the more immediate concern isn’t a Category 4 hurricane roaring ashore. It’s what the beast could throw at Southern California from hundreds of miles away.
Large swells, potentially dangerous rip currents and a surge of muggy tropical air could begin arriving this weekend, with coastal conditions potentially becoming more troublesome early next week. The National Weather Service is forecasting elevated surf and powerful rip currents along Southern California beaches beginning this weekend and stretching into next week as several southerly swells roll toward the coast.
Bryan Lewis, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Oxnard, told the Los Angeles Times that elevated surf could collide with high tides Monday and Tuesday, a potentially messy combination that could increase the threat of coastal flooding.
That prospect carries extra weight in Long Beach, where waterfront residents are still cleaning up from a brutal pounding over Labor Day weekend. Monster waves slammed into the Alamitos Peninsula, damaged the waterfront boardwalk, stripped away large stretches of sand and sent seawater surging into nearby streets.
“The conditions were very normal,” 77-year-old resident Evelina Mardirossian told the California Post. “And within five minutes, the entire street became a lake.”
The flooding became so severe that roughly 20 homes along the seawall between 63rd Place and 67th Place were placed under mandatory evacuation orders. Now another round of elevated surf could put Southern California beach communities back on alert.
Southern California could be the first part of the US to feel Polo’s wrath, even if the hurricane itself stays safely out at sea.
The National Weather Service in Oxnard continues monitoring the developing situation as Polo tracks slowly northward off Mexico’s coast.