With the 2028 presidential race edging closer, many Americans are already speculating about who could succeed Donald Trump in the White House.
Trump has repeatedly joked about seeking a third term, but the Constitution does not allow it.
The 22nd Amendment bars any individual from serving as president for more than two terms, regardless of whether those terms are consecutive.
It’s also common for vice presidents to position themselves as the next standard-bearer for their party once an administration ends. In recent history, figures such as Kamala Harris, Mike Pence, and Al Gore have all pursued the presidency after serving as VP—though none ultimately won.
That pattern is part of why some observers expect JD Vance to be in the mix for 2028. However, new numbers suggest his standing has weakened compared with earlier expectations.
Newsweek reports that Vance’s odds of winning the 2028 election have hit an “all-time low,” falling to 18 percent earlier this week.
Data from PredictIt shows that on March 26, California Governor Gavin Newsom led a small group of top names—Newsom, Vance, and Marco Rubio—at 24 percent, while Vance sat at 22 percent that day.
Because prediction markets fluctuate rapidly, the picture shifted again by March 29. PredictIt now lists Vance slightly ahead at 24 percent, with Newsom down to 22 percent.
Another prediction platform, Kalshi, paints an even tougher outlook for Vance. At the time of writing, it places him at 18.8 percent, narrowly ahead of Newsom at 18.1 percent.
Those current figures mark a notable drop from late September of last year, when some market estimates suggested Vance had better than a 30 percent chance of eventually becoming president.
The latest movement in the markets arrives after Joe Rogan criticized some MAGA supporters, calling them “really weird, f**king uninteresting, unintelligent people that have got something they cling to” and “dorks”—remarks Vance later responded to.
While speaking on The Benny Show, the vice president said: “I think we have many, many fewer dorks than the far left, but everybody’s got some dorks.”
“We love our dorks,” Vance added. “We love our cool kids. We love anybody who wants to save the country.”