A new NOAA forecast map pinpoints nine U.S. States facing the heaviest rain and snow this winter as a historically powerful El Niño builds in the Pacific.
The states flagged for above-normal precipitation are Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Alabama, California and Arizona, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center. The alert lands alongside fresh data showing better than 90 percent odds of a “very strong” El Niño persisting through the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter of 2026-27.
For the October-to-December window specifically, NOAA puts the chance at 69 percent that the event will exceed every El Niño on record dating back to 1950. The agency confirmed the current El Niño officially began in June and could stretch all the way to spring 2027, making it markedly longer than the previous event, which ran roughly 12 months from June 2023 to May 2024.
El Niño, Spanish for “little boy,” is a naturally occurring climate pattern driven by sea surface temperatures across the tropical Pacific Ocean climbing well above average. It typically develops every two to seven years and can scramble weather patterns worldwide for months, pushing global temperatures upward in the process.
The World Meteorological Organization has matched NOAA’s warning, forecasting the event will peak toward the end of this year with impacts stretching well into 2027. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said the current event has “the potential to deliver a massive blow to communities and economies across the world.”
UN Secretary-General António Guterres framed the stakes in stark terms during a recent statement.
“El Niño is being supersized before our eyes. The science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up,” he said.
“Sea surface temperatures are rising, temperatures keep climbing, and the world is in the danger zone of extreme weather,” Guterres continued. “The race now is between rising risks and our commitment to take climate action and protect people. We must win that race.”
The nine states facing heavier-than-normal precipitation represent just one slice of the broader disruption El Niño typically triggers. The pattern is linked to soaring temperatures, intense storms, flooding, drought and extreme heat, all of which can crush crop yields, stress ecosystems and inflate health and economic costs.
The most recent El Niño offers a window into what that damage can look like. It amplified global heat, drove severe droughts and heavy flooding, sparked widespread marine heatwaves and coral bleaching, and helped push 2024 to the hottest global temperature ever recorded.
Saulo said the response must rise to match the threat level.
“This exceptional El Niño demands exceptional preparation and response,” she said, adding that never before in the WMO’s 50-year history had the organization launched such a large-scale mobilization of national meteorological services to protect lives and livelihoods.
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