NASA has released an update concerning the enormous asteroid known as 2024 YR4.
This asteroid, discovered by NASA in December 2024, has been labeled as a potentially ‘city-destroying’ object, prompting scientists to keep a close watch on its path.
When dealing with asteroids like YR4, one of the primary concerns is the potential for a collision with Earth.
Initially, the chances of this massive space rock striking Earth were considered to be less than 2%. However, this estimate was revised to 3.2%, marking it as the biggest threat to our planet at that time, surpassing the notorious ‘God of Chaos’ asteroid.
Fortunately, these concerns have been alleviated as the probability has since been adjusted to a far less alarming 0.004% as of February 2025.
NASA stated: “As observations of the asteroid continued to be submitted to the Minor Planet Center, experts at NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory’s (JPL’s) Center for Near-Earth Object Studies were able to calculate more precise models of the asteroid’s trajectory and now have updated its impact probability on Dec. 22, 2032 to only 0.004% and found there is no significant potential for this asteroid to impact our planet for the next century.”
Moreover, NASA has provided new insights into YR4’s size, revealing that the asteroid is larger than initially estimated.
Original estimates suggested a size of 131-295 feet (40-90 meters), based on ‘visible light measurements from ground-based telescopes’.
However, NASA now estimates YR4 to be between 74-220 feet (53-67 meters), describing it as roughly the size of a 10-story building.
While the chance of the asteroid striking Earth is extremely low, there is a slightly higher likelihood of it impacting the Moon.
“Experts at NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies at the agency’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory have updated 2024 YR4’s chance of impacting the Moon on Dec. 22, 2032 from 1.7 percent as of late February to 3.8% based on the Webb data and observations from ground-based telescopes,” NASA explained.
The agency further stated: “There is still a 96.2 percent chance that the asteroid will miss the Moon. In the small chance that the asteroid were to impact, it would not alter the Moon’s orbit.”
Even if YR4 were to collide with the Moon, the effects on Earth would be minimal.
David Rankin, an operations engineer at the University of Arizona’s Catalina Sky Survey, commented on the potential aftermath of such an unlikely collision: “There is the possibility this would eject some material back out that could hit the Earth, but I highly doubt it would cause any major threat.”