Once, the idea that the world was on the brink of ending was mostly associated with fringe religious groups and the highly suspicious, but fresh research indicates that millions of Americans think an apocalypse could happen soon.
With President Trump’s bombing campaign in Iran beginning as Ukrainians continue to battle nuclear-armed Russia for control of their country, it may not be surprising that more people now see the end of the world as not only conceivable, but probable.
The survey drew responses from 3400 people and examined how Americans see the future. It found that roughly one in three respondents think the world will end within their lifetime. Researchers then used the results to explore how these beliefs shape reactions to major challenges such as climate change.
Study author Matthew Billet, from University of California, Irvine, said: “Belief in the end of the world is surprisingly common across North America, and it’s significantly influencing how people interpret and respond to the most pressing threats facing humanity.”
According to the research team, participants pictured the coming apocalypse in very different ways. There was a wide spread in what they believed might trigger it, and even disagreement over whether an end-times scenario would be wholly negative or potentially beneficial.
There was little consensus on what might lead to human extinction. People pointed to a range of threats, including climate change, nuclear conflict, emerging technologies, and new diseases, all feeding into an increasingly common sense of existential uncertainty.
To better understand these views, the researchers grouped responses into five themes that influence how people act and how they interpret the world around them.
These factors included: how soon respondents believed the end would arrive, whether humanity caused it, whether supernatural forces were involved, how much individuals could do to affect the outcome, and whether the end was perceived as good.
Participants were also questioned about possible drivers of global collapse, organised into five broad areas: economic, environmental, geopolitical, societal, and technological.
Billet explained: “Different narratives people believe about the end of the world can lead to very different responses to societal issues.”
He explained: “Someone who believes humans are causing the apocalypse through climate change will respond very differently to environmental policy than someone who believes the end times are controlled by divine prophecy.”
Billet said the findings revealed a notable overlap across groups ranging from Christians anticipating the Rapture to climate campaigners: many shared the belief that humans, in some way, had helped bring about the end.
Crucially, the kind of apocalyptic outlook someone holds can be a strong clue to how they’ll behave. Those who linked climate change to human activity, for example, were much more likely to back steps aimed at protecting the environment.
By contrast, respondents who viewed the apocalypse as something set in motion by divine will tended to be less convinced that people should try to prevent or alter the outcome.
Billet argued that recognising these patterns can help explain why communities interpret the same events in sharply different ways.
He said: “These differences can create disagreements across cultural groups that make it difficult to coordinate responses to global risks, both within countries and between countries.
“Today, beliefs about accepting the Mark of the Beast from the Last Days undermine efforts at mass vaccination against COVID-19. The dread of climate apocalypse undermines young people’s motivation to tackle climate change and to bring children into this world.”
Explaining how this insight could support more effective action, Billet added: “If we want to build consensus around addressing climate change, AI safety or pandemic preparedness, we need to understand how different communities are interpreting these threats through their own cultural lenses.
“In a world facing genuine catastrophic risks, that understanding has never been more important.”