The Old Farmer’s Almanac has released its Christmas 2026 snow forecast, predicting that parts of 16 U.S. States could wake up to more than an inch of snow on December 25.
The annual reference, which has issued weather predictions since 1792, bases its long-range outlook on what it describes as “a unique formula that combines three scientific disciplines: solar science, climatology, and meteorology.” Its latest winter forecast points to two major climate drivers shaping the holiday weather picture: a Super El Niño pattern and an already active Polar Vortex.
The 16 states where the Almanac forecasts possible white Christmas conditions span a broad arc across the middle and eastern United States. According to the publication, areas of North Carolina, Virginia, and West Virginia in the Appalachians could see snow, along with Midwestern states including Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin. The forecast also extends to the Plains, covering North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, and Oklahoma, plus Kentucky and Texas.
El Niño sits at the center of the Almanac’s explanation for the unpredictable winter pattern. The climate cycle develops when surface waters of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become unusually warm, a shift that can trigger extreme weather events across North America. That same pattern has already contributed to intense hurricane activity during the current year.
The Polar Vortex adds another layer of uncertainty to the forecast. The National Weather Service defines the polar vortex as “a large area of low pressure and cold air surrounding both of the Earth’s poles,” noting that it “always exists near the poles, but weakens in summer and strengthens in winter.”
“The term ‘vortex’ refers to the counter-clockwise flow of air that helps keep the colder air near the Poles,” the National Weather Service explains. “Many times during winter in the northern hemisphere, the polar vortex will expand, sending cold air southward with the jet stream.”
The agency adds that this expansion “occurs fairly regularly during wintertime and is often associated with large outbreaks of Arctic air in the United States.” The vortex has already begun causing disruption at an unusually early point in the season, according to the Almanac’s forecast.
A white Christmas, defined in the Almanac’s forecast as having more than an inch of snow on the ground Christmas morning, has become increasingly rare in many parts of the country in recent years. The 2026 prediction marks a notable shift from recent holiday seasons that have largely disappointed snow enthusiasts outside traditional northern tier states.
The forecast’s geographic spread is particularly wide this year, reaching as far south as Texas and North Carolina. Such southern extensions of white Christmas territory typically depend on the exact alignment of cold air masses with moisture tracks, a combination that El Niño patterns can either enhance or disrupt.