Mark Carney warned Thursday that outside forces are working to fracture Canada as he campaigned to keep Alberta in the federation.
The prime minister, 60, addressed an estimated 5,000 people at the Forever Canadian rally at Calgary’s BMO Centre, with some supporters waiting more than two hours to clear security. Carney, who grew up in the province, was scheduled to hold a second rally in Edmonton on Friday as advance voting continued through Saturday ahead of Monday’s referendum.
“This referendum comes at the worst possible time,” Carney told the Calgary crowd. “The world has become more dangerous and divided. Some outside our borders are working to break us so they can own us.”
He did not name the United States or President Donald Trump in that remark, though he has done so in previous speeches. The warning landed amid Trump’s ongoing trade war with Canada and his repeated threats to absorb the country as the 51st U.S. State.
Carney urged voters to reject the idea that Monday’s ballot could serve merely as protest.
“Don’t be fooled by the idea you can ‘send a message’ with your vote,” he said. “This is not poker. A vote against Canada is a dangerous bluff that will lead to years of deep division and great uncertainty.”
The referendum does not offer direct independence. Instead, Albertans will choose whether to remain a province or instruct the government to begin legal steps toward a future separation referendum. The province holds the world’s fourth-largest proven oil reserves, making its status economically consequential for the entire country.
At the rally, Carney acknowledged the grievances behind Alberta’s alienation from Ottawa.
“The frustrations that many Albertans have felt are real,” he said. He recalled growing up with federal policies that made Albertans feel “like our resources weren’t our own,” and said the province more recently was made to feel its energy contributions were “against the tides of history.”
His biggest applause came when he highlighted the Pacific Link pipeline, a project he fast-tracked that he said would create more than 140,000 jobs and generate revenue for social programs while reducing Canadian dependence on the U.S.
“Careful, they might think that’s election interference. A little touchy,” Carney joked, drawing laughter. He was referencing U.S. Ambassador Pete Hoekstra’s recent warning to Canadian politicians against interfering in American midterm elections.
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, who called the vote but supports remaining in Canada, cast her ballot Wednesday and said she voted for Alberta to stay. She has expressed concern that support for separation remains uncomfortably high.
“Canada can still work,” Smith said after voting. “We just need to make some changes.”
The separatist cause has moved from Alberta’s political fringes to a formal referendum following the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2022 Freedom Convoy protests. Activists who organized against vaccine mandates and pandemic restrictions shifted their focus to provincial independence.
Tanya Clemens, co-chair of the pro-independence group Let Alberta Decide, said the pandemic accelerated the movement by teaching people how to organize politically and become more involved in party politics. She also sees Monday’s vote as leverage in negotiations with Ottawa.
“He’s formidable for sure,” Clemens said of Carney, though she dismissed his agreements with Smith as “pinky promises” that fail to resolve long-standing federal grievances.
Keith Wilson, another Let Alberta Decide leader, rejected Carney’s argument about global instability making this the wrong moment for the vote.
“The worst timing for this, why? I don’t understand what’s the logic,” Wilson said. “Then it’s the best time for him to get back to Ottawa.”
Wilson predicted Carney would eventually impose federal taxes on oil exports despite the prime minister’s stated opposition to using Canadian energy as leverage against the U.S.
“It’s one cabinet meeting away,” Wilson said. “He’s gonna do it. He has to do it.”
Daniel Béland, a political science professor at McGill University, called Carney’s Alberta popularity “highly unusual” for a Liberal prime minister, noting the province’s decades of feuding with Liberal governments over energy and federal power. Béland said Carney has benefited from a “Trump effect,” as Trump’s trade war and annexation threats have rallied Canadians around their leader even in traditionally hostile territory.
Carney has broken with predecessor Justin Trudeau on several policies, fast-tracking the Pacific Link pipeline and declaring Canada an energy superpower. Earlier Thursday, he pointed to Albertans born or educated elsewhere in Canada, and to firefighters from across the country who assist during provincial wildfires, as examples of the ties binding Alberta to the federation.
The final vote takes place Monday.