A recent study raises doubts about President Donald Trump’s promise of $2,000 ‘tariff dividends’, leaving the possibility that recipients might receive nothing.
Trump’s controversial tariffs on US companies importing goods were intended to generate revenue that could be distributed as a dividend among the American people, according to the President.
“We’ve taken in hundreds of billions of dollars in tariff money. We’re going to be issuing dividends,” Trump stated, suggesting that payments might start as early as ‘the middle of next year, a little bit later than that’.
The president indicated these payments would target ‘low, moderate and middle incomes’, though he did not specify the exact criteria.
However, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent mentioned to Fox News that legislative approval from Congress would be necessary to authorize the substantial expenditure.
He mentioned that the distribution ‘would be for families making less than, say, $100,000′.
A recent study shows that even these individuals might not receive the checks, as the cost of distributing the dividends could exceed the available Treasury funds.
The report, ‘Tariff Dividends Would Cost More than Tariff Revenues Will Generate’, was released on November 18 by the US Tax Foundation.
It outlines three proposed models for tariff dividends, ultimately determining that distributing $2,000 to those in need without increasing the federal budget deficit is unfeasible.
Here are the proposed models:
The study also evaluated the costs if dividends extended to dependents of tax filers and non-filers, raising costs to $606.8 billion for option 3.
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimated the annual cost of administering the handout could be around $600 billion.
Nevertheless, the Tax Federation pointed out that Trump’s tariffs are projected to generate $158.4 billion in total revenue in 2025 and an additional $207.5 billion in 2026.
If Trump plans to fund the dividends using 2025 tariff revenues alone, he would fall short by $120 billion even for the least costly tariff dividends model.
“Most designs would absorb all the revenue generated so far, and most or all that will be generated in the next calendar year,” the Tax Foundation reported.
“Under nearly any design option, sending out $2,000 payments to Americans would increase, not decrease, the federal budget deficit.
“A better way to provide relief from the burden of tariffs would be to eliminate the tariffs.”
The White House has been approached for comment on this matter.