A newly released study has flagged an unsettling shift in life expectancy prospects for Gen X and Millennial adults.
In 2024, life expectancy at birth sits at about 79 years overall. Women are projected to live to roughly 81, while men average closer to 76.
Although those numbers have moved up and down in the years surrounding the Covid-19 pandemic, researchers say new analysis points to a broader and more troubling pattern.
In short, people born from 1970 to 1985 appear to be facing higher mortality rates than the generations immediately before and after them.
To investigate, scientists examined cause-of-death records covering the period from 1979 through 2023, then assessed what might be driving the differences across age groups and birth cohorts.
The analysis suggests that people born before the 1960s generally followed the expected trajectory of improving outcomes over time, but that momentum began to weaken for those born in the 1970s.
Leah Abrams, from Tufts University, explained: “We see concerning trends for those born from around 1970 to 1985 – the late Gen Xers and elder Millennials. These cohorts are trending worse than their predecessors in all-cause mortality; deaths from cardiovascular disease and cancer, especially colon cancer; and external causes.”
The study’s lead author described a pivotal change beginning with certain Baby Boomer cohorts. They said: “Baby Boomers born between 1950 and 1959 mark a turning point. Before that group, each successive birth cohort seemed to have lower mortality than the one before it.
“This group has experienced worse outcomes than the generations before them. And the generations that followed them had mortality improvements that weren’t as strong as prior generations had.”
Researchers pointed to “external” causes of death as one likely contributor to earlier mortality, including drug overdoses, vehicle crashes, and suicide, while also noting that chronic health conditions play a major role in the overall trend.
One of the most striking findings was a rise in deaths linked to colon cancer—something Abrams said is particularly troubling.
She added: “Greater cancer prevalence can indicate that we’re simply catching cancer sooner; if you do more screenings at younger ages, more younger people will be diagnosed. But our study shows increased mortality, and it’s never good to have more deaths at young ages. This is a genuinely alarming trend.”
Cardiovascular disease was another area where outcomes appeared to be worsening, with the study indicating an uptick in heart-related deaths among Gen X and Millennials compared with older cohorts.
Even though these conditions are generally uncommon for people in their 30s and 40s, Abrams warned the early signs could have serious implications later in life. She added: “If these cohorts are showing worse mortality trends already, what’s going to happen when they’re in their 60s if nothing gets turned around? That’s one of the looming implications of these findings.”
The research was published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.