More than 32 million people along the Interstate 95 corridor are under a flash flood threat as severe storms barrel toward the East Coast for the Thursday evening rush.
A level 3 out of 4 flash flood risk has been issued for central and northern New Jersey and New York City for Thursday afternoon, with drenching downpours timed to hit during the evening commute. On top of the flood threat, a Tornado Watch covers over 15 million people across parts of Delaware, the District of Columbia, Maryland, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Virginia until 10 p.m. ET.
The FOX Forecast Center warned that intense rain rates and downpours over already saturated soils could lead to flooding as well as urbanized flooding in Philadelphia and New York City. “A Flood Watch has now been extended farther to the north to include New York City and continues for most of New Jersey and far southeast Pennsylvania, including Philadelphia,” the center said.
“Intense rain rates and downpours over already saturated soils, could lead to flooding as well as urbanized flooding in Philadelphia and New York City.”
NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center issued a widespread Level 2 out of 4 risk of flash flooding Thursday along the I-95 corridor from Connecticut to Virginia. Seventeen million people across parts of New Jersey and New York City face the higher Level 3 risk.
An area from Central New Jersey through parts of northern North Carolina is at greatest risk of severe storms that could also produce damaging wind gusts. This includes Washington, D.C. And the entire Delmarva. A tornado or two will be possible around Philadelphia and across parts of central New Jersey if supercell thunderstorms form.
The storms are advancing eastward after blasting parts of northeastern Arkansas and Kentucky late Wednesday, as well as Indiana, which is still reeling from last week’s deadly flooding. Severe storms placed parts of southwestern Indiana under a Tornado Warning Wednesday afternoon.
More than 24,000 customers were still without power in southwestern Kentucky early Thursday. NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center received a report of a possible tornado in Graves County overnight Thursday.
The cold front responsible for the severe weather is forecast to move east from the Ohio Valley through Thursday with an area of low pressure trailing behind it. According to the FOX Forecast Center, this front is expected to stall Thursday evening over the Northeast coast down south into the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas.
Thunderstorms could produce rainfall rates of up to 2 inches per hour.
Storms are expected to taper through the evening.
By Friday, the stalled cold front is expected to allow more storms to develop over the same areas in Virginia, North Carolina and into coastal Maryland, where rainfall rates of 2 inches per hour could be possible. The Level 2 flood threat will shift south Friday, covering an area from southern Delmarva to parts of central South Carolina.
As the weekend approaches, the area of low pressure could develop further, potentially pushing rainfall north into the Interstate 95 corridor, but nothing is guaranteed yet, the FOX Forecast Center said. Rainfall is still expected to fall through Saturday evening in the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas.
Widespread rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches are possible from North Carolina heading north up into coastal New Jersey, with localized amounts of 3 to 5 inches possible.
In the viral moment that set up this week’s escalating threat, parts of the Midwest and South have already been hammered by catastrophic flooding and severe storms. Last week’s deadly flooding left Indiana reeling, with communities still recovering as new storms arrived Wednesday. A derecho tore through the region earlier, leaving hundreds of thousands without power and setting the stage for the saturated ground now facing the Northeast. The bullseye for the heaviest rain this week is also an area dealing with widespread severe to extreme drought across the Carolinas and Virginia.
If the forecast holds, the flash flood risk could be upgraded in the coming days.
The next round of storms is expected to develop Friday over Virginia, North Carolina and coastal Maryland.