Mayor Karen Bass has pulled even with challenger Nithya Raman in the Los Angeles mayoral race after trailing by double digits in a prior survey, a new UC Berkeley poll shows.
The survey, released Wednesday, puts Bass, 71, and Raman, 42, at 40% each among likely voters with just days until the Nov. 3 election. The online poll of 2,197 likely city voters was conducted Oct. 19-25 and carries a three-point margin of error. Nearly one in five voters, 19%, remain undecided.
The tie marks a dramatic reversal from a California Post-McLaughlin & Associates poll that had Raman leading Bass 46.7% to 38.8% in a head-to-head matchup, with 13.5% undecided. Raman, a democratic socialist city councilmember, had seized the polling lead during the general election season after Bass won the primary with 34% support to Raman’s 29% and former candidate Spencer Pratt’s 25.5%.
Bass’s surge owes largely to Pratt’s former supporters. She gained 19 points among that group since a similar September poll, with 41% now backing her, 45% still undecided, and 14% voting for Raman. Raman lost 2% of Pratt voters in the new survey.
“The Pratt voters are the biggest insertion,” Mark DiCamillo, director of the Berkeley IGS Poll, told the LA Times. “The question remains, since we’re looking at Pratt voters, 45% remain undecided. Will they vote?”
DiCamillo said the latest numbers offer relief to Bass after her campaign spent weeks attacking Raman’s readiness for office. “It’s certainly a breath of fresh air for Bass to see the race close,” he said. “She’ll probably feel the campaign is having the effect she wants it to have, which is to put more focus on Raman and put Raman on the defensive.”
That offensive included a sharp exchange during the candidates’ final debate, where Bass directly challenged Raman’s experience.
“You are not ready for prime time,” she told Raman.
Raman has also faced sustained criticism from LAPD Chief Jim McDonnell. In a recent interview with ABC 7, Raman said McDonnell “lost the trust of our immigrant community here in LA.”
McDonnell fired back in exclusive comments to The California Post. “It’s easy to make a broad statement like that,” he said. “I would challenge somebody: Is that a handful of activists talking, or is that, you know, a greater feeling of discomfort in the bigger community?”
The Berkeley poll also gauged voter priorities in the nation’s second-largest city. Homelessness topped the list at 43%, while public safety and affordable housing each drew 29%.
Bass’s primary victory had made her the apparent frontrunner, and she led most primary polls. But Raman flipped the script during the general election, overtaking the incumbent in surveys and forcing Bass into an unusually competitive reelection fight for a sitting mayor. The tightening race has drawn national attention as a test of whether a democratic socialist can capture leadership of a major American city.
Early voting has already begun for the Nov. 3 election.