Historian Allan Lichtman, known for his election predictions, experienced a moment of realization live on YouTube when he acknowledged an error in forecasting Vice President Kamala Harris’s victory in the presidential election.
Lichtman, a Brooklyn native, has gained fame for co-developing a predictive model with geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok. This system has been notably accurate in forecasting U.S. presidential election outcomes since 1984.
The historian, often referred to as the ‘Nostradamus of US presidential elections,’ has used his ‘Keys to the White House’ method to successfully anticipate election results from 1984 to 2020. However, his predictions faltered in 2000 and in the most recent election cycle of 2024.
Before the 60th quadrennial presidential election, Lichtman predicted that Harris, 60, would prevent Republican candidate Donald Trump, 78, from securing a second term. But during a live stream with his son Sam on election night, Lichtman realized Harris would not be named President-Elect.
As they monitored election results, Sam mentioned about five hours and 49 minutes into the broadcast, “I think she lost. I hate to say that because I’ve been hopeful all night but I think she lost.”
Lichtman responded, “Me too. I think it’s 90 percent over. Something ridiculous would have to happen.”
While awaiting the final vote counts, Lichtman informed his audience that there would be no YouTube live stream the following day (November 7), citing his plans to ‘sleep all day’ instead.
“I’m heartened from all the kind emails I’ve been getting, a lot of people say we should keep doing this show,” he expressed, showing gratitude for the support from his followers.
Sam, feeling disbelief, admitted, “I can’t believe it. I’m kind of in shock right now. I’ve been hopeful this whole time…I think it’s gone. There’s just not enough room to make up… I just can’t wrap my head around it.”
Lichtman acknowledged during the stream that his ‘Keys to the White House’ system had failed on this occasion, even though Harris met eight of the 13 criteria.
In a prior interview with the New York Times, Lichtman noted that Trump had five unfavorable metrics, leading him to believe Harris would win.
“A lot of people believe the future of the country is on the line here, and the democracy of America could be a thing of the past,” Lichtman observed. “I don’t think that’s an illegitimate fear. I’m so worried about the future of our election, you know… democracy is precious but like all precious things, it can be destroyed.”
Despite initially canceling a recap show, Lichtman later announced on social media that a discussion broadcast was planned.
“I want to thank all the loyal members, subscribers and viewers of our live show,” he posted on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter. “We will go on and are assessing last night’s results. Please tune in on Thursday at 8 PM Eastern for a discussion of what happened and what the future holds for America. @allanlichtmanyoutube.”