A 1,000-pound spacecraft is anticipated to collide with Earth later this week, raising concerns about potential damage, although the likelihood of it hitting a person remains minimal.
While the risk of the satellite directly hitting someone is low, it is not zero. Technological advancements have enabled experts to predict such events with greater accuracy, which is beneficial for preparedness.
In March 1972, the Soviet Union launched Kosmos 482 with the aim of collecting data from the surface of Venus.
However, an engine malfunction prevented the satellite from escaping Earth’s gravitational pull. It is believed that the main structure of the satellite was destroyed when it reentered Earth’s atmosphere in 1981.
The remaining part of the 53-year-old satellite is predicted to return to Earth shortly.
Kosmos 482 is expected to reenter Earth’s atmosphere between May 8 and May 11, with more precise predictions likely as the date approaches.
According to Earthsky.org, determining the exact reentry location of the satellite is ‘extremely difficult’.
The satellite could reenter anywhere between latitude 52 degrees north and 52 degrees south, suggesting that it will probably land in the ocean.
Dr. Marco Langbroek from the Dutch satellite tracking station SatTrackCam Leiden forecasts that the reentry will occur between May 7 and 13.
He stated: “The risks involved are not particularly high, but not zero: with a mass of just under 500 kg and 1-meter size, risks are somewhat similar to that of a meteorite impact.”
In a blog post, British-American astronomer Jonathan McDowell mentioned: “I am moderately confident, but not 100 percent confident, that object 6073 is the Kosmos-482 entry capsule.
“If it is, its heat shield means that the half-ton, one-metre-diameter sphere might well survive Earth atmosphere entry and hit the ground.
“In which case I expect it’ll have the usual one-in-several-thousand chance of hitting someone. The vehicle is dense but inert and has no nuclear materials. No need for major concern, but you wouldn’t want it bashing you on the head.”
McDowell informed MailOnline that in the event of the satellite causing injury or damage, the ‘Russian government would be liable for it’.
Originally, the satellite had a parachute system intended to slow its descent upon reentry, but there is only a small chance it will activate, according to experts.