Betting odds for the next US presidential election have revealed some unexpected rankings.
Donald Trump, the current president, and Kamala Harris, a former presidential candidate, are both on the list, but it is their respective positions that have caught people off guard.
Given that Trump is serving his second term as president, and the 22nd amendment of the US constitution prohibits anyone from serving more than two terms, one might assume the outcome would be predictable.
This constitutional limitation poses a challenge for Trump should he consider running for president again in 2028. However, surprisingly, there is a segment of the populace that anticipates his return, evident in the odds that favor his potential candidacy in 2028.
This situation also highlights an inconsistency among Trump’s supporters. They believe he won against Joe Biden in 2020, yet they support his 2024 candidacy, which would not be possible if he were the sitting president since 2020. Logic appears to be in short supply in some quarters.
Despite the 22nd amendment restrictions, Trump is still considered by betting odds to have a greater chance of winning than Harris in 2028. That’s quite a revelation.
Kalshi, a betting platform, even suggests that Trump’s chances of success are twice as likely, with a 6 percent probability compared to Harris’ 3 percent.
Harris joined the 2024 presidential race late after Joe Biden withdrew following a disastrous debate performance.
The election saw a shift of swing states towards the Republican party, although the narrow margins indicate that the election was not the overwhelming victory Trump claimed it to be.
Since taking office, Trump’s approval ratings have declined as the midterms approach, particularly regarding key policies like the economy and immigration, areas where he used to perform well in polls.
The Democrats have achieved significant victories, notably Zohran Mamdani’s win in the New York mayoral race.
So, who else is considered a contender for the presidency in 2028?
The leading candidate is Vice President JD Vance, with Kalshi giving him a 30 percent chance of winning.
Gavin Newsom is the top Democratic candidate on the list, with a 20 percent chance of victory, while Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez shares a six percent chance of becoming president with Trump in 2028.