Democrats are poised to lock in their 2028 presidential nominating schedule as the party’s Rules and Bylaws Committee meets this week to finalize what will likely represent a dramatic break from decades of tradition. The decision is expected to keep Iowa off the top of the calendar for the first time in generations while elevating more racially diverse states that better reflect the Democratic Party’s coalition.
The committee’s recommendation, which could come as early as Friday, will need final approval from the full Democratic National Committee at an August meeting in Austin, Texas. But the push to reshape the primary order reflects a significant moment for the party as it looks to rebuild after last year’s electoral losses and prepares for what is expected to be a crowded and competitive open primary in 2028.
For decades, the Democratic and Republican parties largely mirrored each other with Iowa and New Hampshire at the front of their nominating calendars. But after the chaotic 2020 Iowa caucuses, which featured a flawed vote-reporting app that took days to declare a winner, Democrats began a process to reimagine their calendar. That effort culminated in 2024 when President Joe Biden successfully moved South Carolina to the front of the Democratic primary, a shift that was widely credited to the state’s strong Black voter support that proved crucial to his political comeback.
Now, with no incumbent or clear frontrunner heading into 2028, the competition for early voting slots has become intense. Nevada and South Carolina have emerged as the leading contenders for the first-in-the-nation position, each mounting aggressive campaigns to secure the coveted spot. One member of the Rules and Bylaws Committee described the race between them as essentially a toss-up, saying “it’s probably 50-50” at this point.
South Carolina’s case for remaining first rests heavily on the state’s demonstrated track record and the importance of protecting Black electoral power. The state played a pivotal role in reviving Biden’s 2020 campaign and went on to cast the first ballots in the 2024 Democratic primary. South Carolina officials have argued in letters to the party that the state best represents the initial playing field for presidential candidates to build winning coalitions and serves as “a moral and political compass for our party and our nation.” Some supporters have highlighted recent Republican attacks on voting rights as a reason to maintain the state’s position.
Nevada’s case emphasizes diversity and electability in general elections. The state boasts one of the nation’s largest Hispanic populations alongside a sizable Black electorate and is home to influential labor unions. Nevada Democrats argue that their state better reflects the modern Democratic coalition by combining racial diversity with strong union presence and battleground-state status. Nevada Democratic Party Chair Daniele Monroe-Moreno told reporters that choosing Nevada to go first would be “a strategic decision for our party as we work to build a coalition that we know we need to build to win back the White House in 2028.”
The larger effort to reshape the calendar reflects a deliberate Democratic Party strategy to give greater influence to states that better mirror the party’s diverse base, particularly Black and Latino voters, rather than continuing to rely on Iowa and New Hampshire, which have overwhelmingly white electorates. New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a progressive considered a potential 2028 candidate, recently voiced support for reconsidering the traditional order. “I think that it is good that we don’t take the order for granted, and just copy and paste it every cycle,” she said.
The Democratic National Committee has decided to select four early primary states, with one coming from each of the country’s regions. A fifth state may also be selected. For the Midwest slot, Illinois, Iowa, and Michigan submitted bids, with Michigan viewed as the leading contender for that regional position. Other states competing for early slots include New Mexico, Virginia, and several southeastern states seeking to represent their regions.
The stakes are significant. The early primary states will have outsized influence in determining which candidates gain momentum, attract donors, and emerge as viable contenders. With nearly two decades having passed since the last truly open Democratic primary without an incumbent or dominant frontrunner, the 2028 race is expected to be competitive and potentially crowded. Potential White House hopefuls have already begun laying groundwork in South Carolina, with many partnering with the state Democratic Party on listening tours, appearing alongside influential Rep. Jim Clyburn at his annual fish fry, and holding meet-and-greet events with activists.
Republican leaders have signaled they will stick with their traditional early-state lineup led off by Iowa and New Hampshire, maintaining the status quo that has largely defined presidential politics for decades. The Democratic Party’s willingness to break with tradition stands as a clear statement about the party’s changing priorities and its effort to ensure the nomination process reflects the voters it seeks to win in general elections.