Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman is within striking distance of unseating Gov. Kathy Hochul, according to a campaign-commissioned poll that puts him just 4 percentage points behind the Democratic incumbent.
The survey, conducted by McLaughlin & Associates for the Blakeman campaign from Aug. 27-31 among 800 likely voters, found Hochul leading the Nassau County executive 49.6% to 45.7%, with 4.7% undecided. The results arrive as outside groups pour new money into the race and Blakeman’s allies frame the gap as surmountable with under two months until Election Day.
“The majority of voters (56%) believe that it’s time to give someone else a chance to do better, while only 38% say Kathy Hochul has performed well enough as Governor to deserve re-election,” pollster John McLaughlin said in a memo outlining the results.
“The results show New York voters are dissatisfied with the direction of the state and Governor Hochul continues to miss critical benchmarks for a safe incumbent, leaving the opportunity for Bruce Blakeman to defeat Kathy Hochul this November,” McLaughlin continued.
Blakeman, 67, seized on the numbers with characteristic combativeness. “The Worst Governor in America is on the ropes, and New Yorkers have had enough. This November, they’re going to fire Kathy Hochul and elect me to make New York affordable again, keep families here, and build a new era where everyone has the opportunity to prosper,” he said.
Yet the Republican faces formidable obstacles. Nearly a third of likely voters (30%) say they have never heard of him or have no opinion, a recognition deficit that looms large with the Nov. 3 election approaching. Hochul also dominates Blakeman 60% to 33% in New York City, forcing him to run up massive margins elsewhere to compensate.
Geographically, Blakeman leads Hochul 51% to 46% upstate and 53% to 43% in the suburbs, the McLaughlin poll found. Those regional advantages mirror the coalition that nearly propelled Republican Lee Zeldin to victory in 2022, when Hochul won by just 6 points statewide.
The poll diverges sharply from an independent Siena College survey last month showing Hochul ahead 49% to 39%. That same Siena poll found 60% of voters disapproved of President Trump’s job performance, a vulnerability Hochul’s team has exploited by spending millions on ads tying Blakeman to the former president, who has endorsed him.
Hochul’s campaign dismissed the Blakeman-commissioned survey and declined a request to release its own internal polling. “Bruce Fakeman is pushing fake AI-generated ads, fake government letters to solicit donations, and fake polls to cover up the fact that nobody in the real world is buying what he’s selling: a ‘100% MAGA’ puppet enabling ICE’s violence, running his own armed militia, and promising to gut Medicaid and raise your costs,” said Hochul campaign spokesperson Ryan Radulovacki.
The financial disparity remains stark. “Friends for Kathy Hochul” reported $21 million cash on hand as of July filings, with the state Democratic Party holding an additional $22 million. Blakeman’s campaign, the Nassau County Republican Party and allied GOP groups have raised about $11 million combined, though pro-Blakeman Super PACs are now supplementing that total.
Two other pro-Blakeman polls this summer also showed tightening margins. The Strong & Safe Super PAC, backed by Knicks owner James Dolan, found Hochul leading 47% to 43%, while a co/efficient survey for the Coalition to Protect New York Taxpayers put her ahead 47% to 41%.
McLaughlin argued the fundamentals favor an upset. “At this point in time, the incumbent Governor Kathy Hochul has very high negatives, Bruce Blakeman is favorable, and the close gap on the ballot is surmountable given the electorate’s desire for new leadership,” he said. “With enough resources, Bruce Blakeman can define himself to the electorate and defeat Kathy Hochul in November.”
More than half of voters (55%) view Hochul unfavorably, the McLaughlin poll found, a vulnerability that has persisted despite her incumbency. The survey’s omission of Trump-specific questions drew notice, given his deep unpopularity in the state and Hochul’s relentless efforts to nationalize the race around him.
The 2022 governor’s race, when Zeldin came within 6 points of Hochul, established a template for Republican competitiveness in New York. Zeldin, now Trump’s EPA administrator, built his near-miss on massive suburban and upstate turnout while making modest inroads in the five boroughs. Blakeman’s path runs through similar terrain, though his lower name recognition presents a steeper climb with less time remaining.
Hochul is seeking a second full term after ascending to the governorship in 2021 upon Andrew Cuomo’s resignation. She won election in her own right in 2022 by the slimmest margin for a Democratic governor in New York in a generation, a result that emboldened Republicans and attracted national attention to a state long considered safely blue.
Blakeman’s campaign has leaned heavily into economic messaging, emphasizing affordability and family retention in a state that has experienced significant outmigration. Whether that framework can overcome Hochul’s cash advantage and structural Democratic strength in New York City remains the central question of the race’s final weeks.
The Siena College pollster will release its next survey of the governor’s race in mid-September.