Two military analysts have presented arguments suggesting that World War 3 has already started, despite the absence of typical indicators seen in past global conflicts.
The first and second world wars were marked by elements such as conscription, large-scale invasions, air raid alarms, and mass evacuations. While some of these elements are visible in the current conflict in Ukraine, they are not occurring worldwide.
However, the absence of visible signs like blackouts or tanks on the streets does not necessarily indicate a lack of global conflict, according to national security expert Mark Toth and former US intelligence officer Col. Jonathan Sweet.
In a conversation with the Mail Online, the experts highlighted evidence indicating a third world war might be ongoing. This war does not involve traditional catastrophic imagery like ‘mushroom clouds or apocalyptic wastelands’ but rather unfolds as a ‘war by a thousand cuts, conducted across multi-regional and multi-domain battlefields’.
Along with conventional weapons and explosives like those used in Ukraine, Toth and Sweet pointed out that modern conflict involves cyberattacks, disinformation, sabotage, and economic manipulation.
The analysts cited Russia and its leader Vladimir Putin as exemplifying this type of strategy, noting not only the invasion of Ukraine but also espionage in Europe, coups in Africa, and global misinformation campaigns.
Sweet and Toth characterized these tactics as ‘grey zone’ warfare, stating: “Putin’s ability to conduct hybrid warfare is arguably his greatest strength.”
They elaborated: “To fully grasp the extent of Russia’s extensive disinformation campaign, just look at the US, UK, and Africa. Russian troll and bot farms use memes and fake fact-check accounts to demonize the West and distract from Russian paramilitaries overthrowing democracies.
“Russian troll and bot farms have infiltrated online spaces with cartoons, memes, and fake fact-check accounts to spread discord and undermine confidence in Western governments.”
Air Chief Marshal Sir Richard Knighton of the British Royal Air Force has also expressed concerns about a power struggle, speaking during a Q&A at the Freeman Air and Space Institute recently.
“We are witnessing a return to great power competition,” Knighton noted at the event.
“With the rapid advancement of technology and the economic, technical, and warfighting capabilities of other major powers, we no longer have total air supremacy,” he added.
Nevertheless, while Toth and Sweet maintain that the current conflict constitutes ‘already a world war’, some experts are not as convinced.
Adeline Van Houtte, Senior Europe Analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit, informed the Mail that although the risk of escalation has increased, World War 3 is not actually underway.
She remarked: “The revised nuclear use threshold and the Oreshnik [missile] are most likely intended to send a message to the West, but a nuclear escalation remains highly unlikely.”