A new California Post poll shows Mayor Karen Bass trailing challenger Nithya Raman by nearly 8 points with just weeks until the election.
The survey of 400 LA general election voters, conducted by McLaughlin & Associates from Oct. 15–18, found Raman, backed by the Democratic Socialists of America, leading Bass 46.7% to 38.8% in a head-to-head matchup, with 13.5% undecided. The poll used cellphone calls, text messages and landlines to reach voters across the city.
Bass faces crushing disapproval numbers that cut across every demographic. Overall, 71.7% of voters disapprove of her job performance while just 25.5% approve, a gap that pollster John McLaughlin described as “shocking” for a Democratic mayor in a deep blue city. The disapproval spans all ages, races and both sexes, with even 65.5% of registered Democrats surveyed giving her a thumbs-down.
Bass’s numbers crater among young voters. Just 12.3% of voters ages 18 to 29 approve of her, compared with 48.4% of those older than 65. When asked what they disliked most about Bass, 16.6% of those polled pointed to her job performance, 11.5% to her personality and 8.8% to her wildfire response.
Raman’s lead comes with significant vulnerabilities. She has yet to win over a majority of voters, with 45.4% viewing her favorably and 43.7% unfavorably. Asked which candidate was more extreme, 41% pointed to Raman, compared with just 16.4% for Bass, while 42.6% declined to choose.
Raman’s left-wing politics drew the sharpest criticism from those surveyed. Fifteen point three percent cited her socialist ties through the DSA as their biggest concern, 14.4% called her ineffective, 13.1% branded her policies radical and 10.3% questioned her experience.
Geographically, the race splits unevenly. Raman leads in the San Fernando Valley 44% to 38%, and she is also ahead in Central LA, East LA and South LA. Bass dominates the combined Westside and Harbor area, 52% to 27%.
The poll also reveals deep pessimism about the city’s direction beyond the mayor’s race. A staggering 66.2% of those polled said they were unhappy with the way the city was going, while just 16.4% believed it’s on the right track. Homelessness topped the list of worries at 47.3%, followed by cost of living at 41.7% and housing costs at 35.4%. Overall, 74.1% named at least one pocketbook concern.
The dissatisfaction extends to thoughts of leaving California entirely. Forty-two percent said they’ve seriously considered leaving the state in the past four years.
“It seemed very high when four out of 10 residents in the city of Los Angeles wanna move out of state. They’re going to lose some of the most productive taxpayers and citizens,” McLaughlin told The Post.
“I’ve not seen numbers like that. Possibly in New York, but other than that, that’s a very high number, because you’re saying seriously consider it. You know, it’s not a flippant thing,” he added.
Political analysts warn that Raman’s lead could prove fragile. Dan Schnur, who teaches at USC, UC Berkeley and Pepperdine, noted that Raman’s strength comes from young voters who do not turn out as reliably as older generations.
“The strength of Raman’s support comes from young voters who do not turn out as reliably as their parents and grandparents,” he said. “Bass is judged unfavorably by voters of every age group, but her strongest support comes from the oldest voters.”
Veteran pollster Justin Wallin, a fellow at USC’s Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics, compared the contest to a recall election and cautioned that widespread dissatisfaction with an incumbent doesn’t automatically translate into support for a challenger.
“The incumbent is not liked, this is true. But the challenger must give voters a ‘home’ that they are more comfortable with than the status quo… this is more difficult than it appears,” he said.
“If anyone says they know for certain which way this race will go come Election Day, they are pulling your leg,” Wallin added. “It is simply too close to call.”
Schnur identified voters who backed unsuccessful independent candidate Spencer Pratt in the June primary as the crucial swing bloc.
“The Pratt vote is key. That’s why Bass talked so much about law and order and public safety in the debate, and it’s why the DSA candidate quoted Ronald Reagan in her opening statement,” he told The Post.
On empathy, Raman leads Bass 37.1% to 22.5% among voters who say she cares more about people like them, though 40.4% were undecided or declined to answer.
Schnur said Bass’s only remaining strategy is to attack her opponent directly.
“Bass isn’t gonna change the voters’ minds about her at this point,” he said. “The question is whether she can make them even more frightened of Raman.”
“The path is still there, but the window’s closing very rapidly.”
The Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on Nov. 5.