In just two months, it has come to light that a ‘city-destroying’ asteroid, comparable in size to the Statue of Liberty, might be steadily approaching Earth.
The asteroid, known as ‘2024 YR4,’ has a one-in-43 chance of impacting our planet in 2032. Although it seems we have ample time to devise plans to protect humanity, some specialists believe the opportunity may have already passed.
Nine nations have been identified as being at risk of a collision with the asteroid, which experts anticipate would lead to a mid-air explosion upon entering our atmosphere. This event could result in destruction akin to eight million tons of TNT, affecting everything within a 30-mile radius.
David Rankin, an engineer with NASA’s Catalina Sky Survey Project, has charted a ‘risk corridor.’ This corridor predicts potential impact areas spanning northern South America, the Pacific Ocean, southern Asia, the Arabian Sea, and Africa.
As a result, countries such as India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Sudan, Nigeria, Venezuela, Colombia, and Ecuador are at risk of bearing the main impact.
Dr. Robin George Andrews, a scientist and author of a book on asteroid impact strategies, took to Twitter to raise awareness about the potential consequences of attempting to redirect the asteroid using a rocket.
“Nobody wants to accidentally ‘disrupt’ an asteroid, because those components can still head for Earth. As I often say, it’s like turning a cannonball into a shotgun spray,” he wrote regarding the asteroid’s orbit around Earth.
He further explained, “But we aren’t going to see it again until another Earth flyby in 2028. So much could go wrong if we try and hit it with something like DART [Double Asteroid Redirection Test – which was the first-ever mission dedicated to investigating and demonstrating one method of asteroid deflection by changing an asteroid’s motion in space through kinetic impact].”
He elaborated, “It may be smaller, or larger. If it’s too big, we may not be able to deflect it with one spacecraft. We’d need several to hit it perfectly, all without catastrophically breaking it.”
Andrews also noted on social media, “And with only a few years down the line, we could accidentally deflect it—but not enough to make it avoid the planet. Then, it still hits Earth, just somewhere else that wasn’t going to be hit.”
He suggested that the most viable defense might be to allow it to collide while ensuring the evacuation of those in the impact zone.
“Asteroid 2024 YR4 isn’t likely to be a problem at all; it’ll probably miss Earth. But if it doesn’t, we have to be wary of trying to save the world but accidentally making the problem worse. Maybe we’ll just have to get out of the asteroid’s way this time,” Andrews concluded.