A new simulation video has illustrated the potential consequences if the rare event of asteroid ‘2024 YR4’ striking Earth were to occur.
The asteroid was detected by NASA’s Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) in Chile last December, utilizing sophisticated telescopic technology.
Though the probability of the asteroid colliding with Earth in 2032 and the potential aftermath remain low, NASA is not closely monitoring it at this time. But what are the implications if this situation were not averted?
According to NASA’s Planetary Defense, Asteroid 2024 YR4 is currently estimated to be between 130 and 300 feet in diameter.
But what are the possible outcomes if the asteroid were to impact Earth?
3D animator Alvaro Gracias Montoya, known professionally as MetaBallStudios, has created a visual representation to explore this scenario.
The results would be catastrophic, to put it mildly.
The animation indicates that if the asteroid were to hit Earth, it could obliterate an area the size of Washington DC by releasing energy equivalent to eight megatons, which is 500 times more potent than the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima.
Fortunately, the likelihood of such an event is exceedingly low, as Montoya himself stated: “I don’t think it’s going to happen, but certainly this kind of news generates a lot of speculation.”
In January, experts estimated a 1.2 percent chance of the asteroid impacting Earth, a figure not worth worrying over. However, Sky News has since reported the probability as increasing to around 2.3 percent.
NASA’s Planetary Defense has confirmed ongoing monitoring of the asteroid, stating, “Ongoing observations from ground-based telescopes involved with the International Asteroid Warning Network will continue while the asteroid is still visible through April, after which it will be too faint to observe until around June 2028.”
Further observations are planned, with NASA noting, “NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope will also observe the asteroid in March 2025 to better assess the asteroid’s size.”
NASA concludes: “It is possible that asteroid 2024 YR4 will be ruled out as an impact hazard, as has happened with many other objects that have previously appeared on NASA’s asteroid risk list, maintained by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies. It is also possible its impact probability will continue to rise. The latest data will continue to be made available via NASA’s automated Sentry page.”