2016 has been filled with a seemingly ever-increasing amount of bloodshed and horror and, understandably, people are worried that the world has become a place filled with senseless violence and terror.
Too Many Deaths #2016in3words
— Tyler Matl (@TylerMatl) July 16, 2016
From terrorist attacks across Europe to shootings in the US and the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, 2016 seems to suggest a marked rise in global violence.
But, according to Harvard social scientist Steven Pinker, the world is actually safer and more peaceful than it’s ever been before, while it’s our perception of current affairs that has in fact changed.
“Believe it or not,” says Pinker, “violence has declined over long stretches of time, and today we may be living in the most peaceable era in our species’ existence.”
According to Pinker, “despite the headlines, the world is becoming less violent,” and he backs this up by pointing out that, in the last century, homicide, war, genocide, and terrorism have been steadily decreasing.
He admits that the Syrian civil war has upped the death rate from warfare, and that homicides in the US have increased very slightly in the last three years — but they’re a fraction of what they were in the 1960s, 70s, and 80s.
And Pinker’s claims are backed up by solid research. In 2010, Canadian researchers found that, since the year 2000, the average military conflict has killed 90% less people each year than during the 1950s.
The below chart from Statista, showing the victims of terrorist attacks outside western Europe from 2001-2014, shows just how tiny the death toll from attacks that make the headlines is compared to global conflicts.
And the below chart shows just how much terrorism has plummeted in Europe since 1970, despite occasional spikes such as the 2004 Madrid bombings and Anders Breivik’s 2011 attack in Norway.
Throughout the 70s, the UK bore the brunt of terrorist attacks in Europe as the IRA fought for independence in Northern Ireland, until the signing of the Good Friday Agreement in the 90s.
Also, in the US, police statistics show that violent crime has dropped from 757.7 per 100,000 people in 1992 to 386.3 per 100,000 people in 2011.
Through two recessions, and against the predictions of sociologists and statisticians, the numbers have continued to drop.
According to Pinker, the current — and actually very small — spike in violence seems much bigger than it actually is compared to the relative peace of the 90s and 00s.
These statistics won’t bring much comfort to those affected by the recent tragedies around the world, and they don’t suggest that everything’s fine and we have nothing to worry about.
But hopefully the numbers show that even when things seem at their very worst, the world isn’t such a bad place after all — and we’ve come a long way from how things used to be.